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Treat thirteen people for three years, prevent one kidney failure

The FLOW subgroup analysis publishes numbers needed to treat, which is a hazard ratio translated into people. Every interaction test came back null.

Glenn Torres6 min read
People treated for 3 years to prevent one kidney outcomeheart failure13high CV risk17established ASCVD22Every subgroup interaction test came back null.

Most results on this site arrive as hazard ratios, which describe a proportion and not a person. This analysis of the FLOW trial publishes numbers needed to treat, which is the same information in a form somebody can act on [1]. The broader kidney evidence is in the kidney disease evidence.

To prevent one primary kidney outcome over three years, you would treat 22 people with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, 13 with heart failure, or 17 at high cardiovascular risk without established disease. The primary outcome is a composite: a fall in kidney function of 50% or more, an eGFR below 15, dialysis, transplantation, or death from kidney or cardiovascular causes.

Thirteen is a striking figure for a chronic disease outcome. It means that in a heart failure clinic, treating a room of thirteen people for three years prevents one of them from reaching dialysis, transplant or death from these causes — and the people in that room are the ones most likely to get there.

That pattern — dramatic-looking subgroup differences dissolving into null interaction tests — is the same one described in the frailty analysis and the HFpEF sex analysis. It keeps recurring because trials are powered for their whole population and journalism is drawn to the slices.

One boundary is worth marking clearly. FLOW enrolled people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and used semaglutide at 1.0 mg — the diabetes dose, not the 2.4 mg weight product. These numbers describe kidney protection in diabetic kidney disease and do not transfer to someone taking a weight-management dose without either condition, nor to people already on dialysis, which is a separate question covered in the dialysis cohort.

Frequently asked

What does a number needed to treat of 13 mean?
Treating thirteen people for three years prevents one of them reaching the primary kidney outcome — a 50% fall in kidney function, an eGFR below 15, dialysis, transplantation, or kidney or cardiovascular death.
Did it work better in some groups than others?
No. Every interaction test comparing subgroups was null, so the benefit did not depend on whether someone had atherosclerotic disease, heart failure, or high cardiovascular risk.
Does this apply to weight-management doses?
No. FLOW used semaglutide 1.0 mg in people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, which is a different dose, indication and population from weight management.

Sources

  1. [1] Tuttle KR, Bakris GL, Baeres FMM, Bang CN, et al. (2026). Kidney and Survival Benefits of Semaglutide in Diabetes With Chronic Kidney Disease: FLOW Trial Cardiovascular Subgroup Analyses Journal of the American College of Cardiology. PMID 42233552

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